APA – Yes or No?

APA Corp got my attention when I saw a number of people talking about it in a dividend investing group.

The first thing I did is pull it up and look at some of the basics. It was showing a 2.27% yield, not bad but nothing special.

Its EPS yield is 18.88% and it was trading well below its normal EPS which suggested to me there may be value here.

APA’s long term debt to capital ratio is 86.56% which is high for me, but their payout ratio is just 8.28% which would make me think it can cover its dividends.

The other warning sign I found was that their 5 year dividend growth rate was -8.97%, this is a pretty big red flag for me when I am considering a longer term investment.

I decided to do my standard 10 year analysis of the stock to see what was really going on here. Needless to say, I did not like what I saw as you can see from the table below.

The two biggest things I look at are the 10 year investment change and the 10 year dividend income change.

The 10 year investment change was -37.06% and the 10 year dividend change was -35.88%, both of these are terrible for my investment strategy.

Initial Investment $10,000.00 Avg Yrly Price
Begin Beg Year Year End Dividend Shares from Year End Year End Yearly
Year Value Stock$ Shs Owned Dividend Yield Income Reinvestment Shares Value Change
2013 $10,000.00 $84.85 117.86 0.90% $90.00 1.09 118.95 $9,546.54 -4.53%
2014 $9,546.54 $80.26 118.95 1.52% $145.11 2.03 120.97 $7,606.76 -20.32%
2015 $7,606.76 $62.88 120.97 2.25% $171.15 3.44 124.41 $4,559.70 -40.06%
2016 $4,559.70 $36.65 124.41 1.58% $72.04 1.44 125.86 $7,944.04 74.22%
2017 $7,944.04 $63.12 125.86 2.37% $188.27 3.44 129.29 $5,997.98 -24.50%
2018 $5,997.98 $46.39 129.29 3.81% $228.52 5.90 135.19 $4,204.49 -29.90%
2019 $4,204.49 $31.10 135.19 3.91% $164.40 5.18 140.37 $4,545.25 8.10%
2020 $4,545.25 $32.38 140.37 2.29% $104.09 4.25 144.62 $2,397.87 -47.24%
2021 $2,397.87 $16.58 144.62 0.51% $12.23 0.53 145.15 $4,306.69 79.60%
2022 $4,306.69 $29.67 145.15 1.34% $57.71 1.59 146.74 $6,293.83 46.14%
2023 $6,293.83 $42.89 146.74
10 Investment Year Change
-37.06%
10 Price Change
-49.45%
10 Year Dividend Change
49%
10 Dividend Income Change
-35.88%

The current P/E ratio would seem to indicate that there might be some upside from where APA is trading currently. Perhaps the next 10 years will look a lot better but for me, I am going to pass.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *