2/15/2019 Weekly Recap and Look Forward

Butterflys

I don’t think we closed any of our short butterfly’s this week. QCOM is a little worrying because of time decay. If QCOM makes a move toward the downside we might be in a little trouble. The others are about break even. Probably should have taken profits on NVDA today at market open but we did not.

Strangles

We did not close any this week, in fact we added to our Strangle positions. We also had to adjust our NKE strangle but it looks alright at the moment.

Credit Spreads

Our NDX credit spread is still showing a pretty big loss but the Delta is OK and Time Decay is still helping us. We just need a pull back.

Iron Condor – Probability

Most of them are in good shape. We have two that are showing significant losses. One expires on 3/15 so no big deal yet. The other expires next Friday so, might be a problem. But we had the chance for a 65% return on this one, so if we lose then that is what we mean by risk/reward.

Diagonals

Still a mess, got assigned on one but we unwound it and stayed in the trade. Long term should be alright.

On another one we are still trading it but there is just not enough premium. We had to roll out two weeks today which is bad the way we trade diagonals. Still bet this one will be a loss when we finally have to give up on it. If it pulls back to a certain level we are just going to close and take the loss. If it stays above that level we are going to keep fighting it. Stay tuned.

Swing trades.

Closed two this week. Both were debit spreads in case you are wondering about the returns we will show you below.

One we closed for a 27.8% loss.

The other we closed for a 94.4% gain.

So, although we were 50/50 we still had a good week.

SPY Test Strategy.

Again, we used debit spreads in cause you wonder about the returns.

We closed two this week.

One for a 38.35% gain and the other for a 13.55% gain. Not a bad week.

We missed an entry yesterday, we were just not paying attention.

Portfolio Delta

This week we are at -192.84 as compared to SPY. This is really bad, but it is mainly the result of our SPX Iron Condor and our NDX Credit Spread. If the market will slow down time decay will take care of it. Or a pullback would be nice.

A pullback would greatly help our portfolio.

 

Next Week.

We did a pretty good job predicting the market this week based on last week’s post. We said we were looking for long entries and the week pretty just confirmed our analysis. It also made the normal move up and pull back we like to see.

We did have to adjust our SPX Iron Condor just before the pull back, which is always inconvenient. However, the market did start another move up so no big deal we needed to adjust which is what our trading plan said to do anyway.

Next week, we are going to wait for a pull back, SPX appears to be moving up but slowing down heading into the close Today. I would not want to guess on a continuation until we see a pullback and then another move up.

So, we will wait and see, which means trade for our new SPY strategy today. Might be one next week.

Of course, watch out for news. Any future predictions go out the window with news.