3/8/2019 Weekly Recap
We missed our prediction for the market this week. We did get the move about $281.30 we thought we would get but we got an immediate and strong pull back which continued throughout the week. Just goes to show that technical analysis can’t over power market events.
Weakness has been pretty strong all week, the gap down today was worrying and made us have flashbacks of December which we thought was way too much of an oversell in the market. Today the market tested another support level, if it holds we will see.
We do not have many short butterflys active right now. We closed one for a 13% loss. We screwed that one up. Everything pointed to closing Monday for a 6% loss but we ignored it. Then as NVDA broke lower we continued to sit on our hands. Should have followed our trade plan and closed because of time decay. But, we didn’t and paid for it.
Our other two short butterflys are fine for now. We are looking for more but haven’t not been able to get the fills we want.
We closed two for target profit this week, we were pretty happy about that. We added two more to keep the right ratio of strangles in our portfolio. So far, they are all fine.
Credit Spread – Index
Closed our NDX credit spread for target profit. Not in another one yet. We are waiting to see what happens with our SPX Iron Condor. We might add another NDX credit spread next week depending on what the market does.
Iron Condor – Index
We had to adjust our SPX Iron Condor again! We must admit this is the most we have had to every adjust one if these. This time our Puts were threatened. Our overall success rate on Index Iron Condors is 82.5%, but this one will probably end up being a loss. We made a mistake on our 2nd adjustment not selling enough time for more distance. Because of that I don’t think we will be able to salvage this trade long term.
We are going to continue to monitor but right now we are looking for an acceptable loss as opposed to trying to get out at about breakeven. We will keep you updated.
Iron Condor Probability Based.
We close a few of these this week for target profit and rolled one out a month. Should have held and we could have gotten out at breakeven, but we did not expect this much of a market pull back.
We are looking for other opportunities because our portfolio does not have our target number of probability based iron condors right now.
Still don’t have any going right now. If the market levels out we may jump in a couple. Main reason we don’t have any is we like our probability based iron condors and strangles better.
Had one trade which we hit target profit on Monday. Did not get an entry signal the rest of the week. Right ow SPY is oversold, so we are watching to see what happens.
We don’t have a strong feeling either way for next week. We got our nose bloodied in December with similar market action.
Our best guess is the market will find support and either move into a range or a move back up. Unfortunately this statement is so vague that we can’t identify a trade yet if you are looking for a direction based trade. Non- directional trades are the best bet, now more than usual, or just waiting for the market to find support next week…or not….
We will be trading. Might not jump into any strangles depending on what happens but probability based Iron Condors and Broken Wing Iron Condors still look good.