2/8/2019 Weekly Recap and Look to Next Week.
The good news is we were eventually right about the market being over bought and going to pull back. The bad news is we were off on our timing. Which resulted in us rolling our SPX Iron Condor the day before the pull back because our Calls had a Delta that was too high.
We were able to close a couple of our Short Butterfly’s for target profit this week which is always nice.
We were also able to add a couple of more to replace the ones we closed. Right now we have 4 short butterfly trades going. They are in pretty good shape. Two are older trades and we may have to close them at small losses next week if nothing changes. Don’t want to let them get too close to expiration.
We tried to get into some others but just didn’t find the right set ups and fills.
Iron Condor, as we already stated we were forced to roll our SPX up and out another week. We are now trying to close for about break even so we can move to the next cycle.
Our NDX call credit spread is about where we sold it at, we originally sold that because of the SPX move up; however, our timing was off and we sold the call credit spread too early. Not a huge deal, we are still in good shape for now.
Iron Condor – Probability
Our probability base Iron Condors look good, the pullback helped. Some of these are regular Iron Condors and some are Broken Wing Iron Condors.
Still have an issue with one of our Iron Condors, Theta is still positive but just barely.
In fact, Theta is positive on all of our Probability Iron Condors at the moment.
Both of our open Diagonals are still a mess. Again, been fighting these for months. We DID NOT follow our own rules and got upside down on these two. Will probably fight our way out on one but might just have to bite the bullet and take a loss on the other. Not much premium to be sold.
Closed our NKE swing trade for a profit but took a very small loss on our APA swing. Still in the NEM swing at the moment but not really liking the movement. All of these swing trades were done with Call Debit Spreads. We might use a Broken Wing Iron Condor on the next one if the numbers work. Less of a profit with those but more room if we are a little wrong.
Added a CAT swing trade using a Broken Wing Iron Condor. We may have gotten in early which is one reason we used the broken wing iron condor strategy. It gives us some downside protection just in case we need to close for a small loss, or want to try and wait it out.
Our portfolio Delta is about -67 as compared to SPY so we are still net short the market but a pretty good amount. A lot of that is our SPX Iron Condor we rolled and our NDX Call Credit Spread we got into too early.
We got the SPX pull back we were looking for this week, unfortunately it came after we had to adjust our portfolio. But, at least we were right, I guess?
Next week we will have to wait and see. SPX has some support here, and more around $2650.00. So, we would be looking to go long based on SPX if we can get some confirmation.
As always, assuming world events don’t through everything into a tail spin.
We are also testing a new SPY strategy. This will be a long term test but will keep you updated.